I am big fan of metrics, because they turn “data” into “information”. But many metrics have a timely context which means information today may not be relevant tomorrow. A second issue is, that metrics can be filtered and massaged to the needs of the audience. For example, recently I saw a town/community advertise their “we are green” campaign by releasing their recycling quota. That quota was measured in tons of returned material. You may think, that the higher the quota, the better and greener the town. Actually wrong! People who prevent garbage in the first place by not purchasing products won’t need to recycle at all. The same is true for lines of code measurements. My approach is simple; I’d rather use no metrics than using the wrong one.
Recently, I came across the Nokia Test.The test is based on a few very basic assessment questions. For example “Are your iterations between 2-4(6) weeks long?” Depending on the answers, project teams are categorized as “excellent scrum”, “good scrum”, “pretty good scrum” and “scrum but(t)’s”. The latter are the projects which believe they are doing scrum, but do in reality only pieces of it.
Interesting about this test is that it reflects on the purity of the Scrum process rather than the progress and success of each individual project. In other words, if you follow Scrum out of the textbook, your score will be higher. Isn’t Scrum empirical, which allows me adapt? In that context, I couldn’t find the question “Are you performing retrospectives at the end of each iteration?” or “Does your project team adapt the process to their project environment/situation?” The test is more or less a checklist.
Then someone took the Nokia test to the next level and linked the assessment score to the annual revenue of organizations practicing Scrum. The result is stunning, the higher the score, the higher the annual revenue. A finding like this seemed too good to be true, so it kept my interest.
The first and most obvious issue I noticed was the relationship between the metrics. The agile assessment performed on a project level versus the annual revenue which is based on the entire organization. Because Scrum is empirical, a Scrum-Butt here and there seems almost natural for a few projects in a very large organization. It seems also impossible to assess a large organization whose development efforts are spread across the globe. Comparing these two metrics seems highly impractical.
Another problem I could see is the timely context. A full year of agile development combined with a timely assessment of the entire project organization. That would require that someone assesses every project at the end of each iteration. And the entire organization would need to transition at the very same time. Wow, that is an amazing investment into something executives already believed in when they started with Scrum.
Linking the Nokia test to the annual revenue seems also somehow articial. Some of the companies listed in the test-result, have increased their annual revenue significantly up to 300%. But how can a company of 10,000 employees or larger truthfully say that Scrum is the reason of all that? In fact, I know that some of the companies listed in the report may use Scrum, but they are dominantly applying XP practices. So, how would I know that the results are linked to Scrum and not to XP? Perhaps they are linked to something totally different? For example, being innovative , creative or simply lucky by releasing the right product at the right time to the marketplace?
Some of “very good Scrum” organizations, which enjoy seeing their revenues going through the roofs, disguised their names. That is in particular disappointing because it does not allow us verifying the findings with public company financial records.
I think I have a feeling what the creators were trying to do with this metric, but unfortunately I believe it is not that easy. I think we may have found a pattern in the industry that successful organizations are embracing agile development and project management practices. But linking Scrum to the annual revenue seems out of league. By the way, not every company measures success with agile adoption with their balance sheets. If so, looking at the current development at the financial markets, 2008 would not be a good year for agile.